By Geno McGahee
My money is usually on Manny Pacquiao, 61-7-2, 39 KO’s, with a couple of exceptions. I picked Floyd Mayweather, JR., to beat him and I picked Timothy Bradley to win the rematch and my initial prediction for the Keith Thurman fight, happening this Saturday, was to pick the younger and stronger champion to end the career of the Filipino legend. As I sat and thought about it, Thurman, 29-0, 22 KO’s, didn’t seem like the safe bet that I thought.
Thurman is a tough competitor with a big punch and he has beaten some very good fighters, most notably being Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia. The fight against Garcia has to be the plan going into Saturday’s fight against Manny. He has to come out aggressive and try to land that big right hand, but Garcia weathered the storm and Manny has only been knocked out three times. Two of the times he was stopped were early in his career at much lighter weights. The knockout to focus on was the loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012.
It’s difficult to see Thurman trying to emulate the knockout that Marquez achieved. He caught Manny in a reckless exchange and Pacquiao may be too smart to go after a bigger guy with such recklessness. Thurman will have to time Pacquiao coming in and stay off of the ropes. It’s not an easy proposition. Despite the aggression from Manny, he’s proven hard to hit. Adrien Broner was unable to stop the incoming quantity of punches coming at him and land his counter shots that should have made him competitive.
There are two fights that could predict the outcome of this fight. Thurman struggled and barely eked by Josesito Lopez in his last fight. If that Thurman shows up, he will not be able to handle Pacquiao. For Manny, the fight with Jeff Horn in 2017 is the one to watch. It could be argued that he won the fight, but what cannot be argued is the fact that he looked like an old fighter, struggling to find the mark. If the Horn fight exposed Manny as an old fighter and his follow up fights with Matthysse and Broner were just a case of the right opponents, Thurman may get the KO win that he so desperately wants.
Both Pacquiao and Thurman have reasons for taking this fight and for being confident. Thurman is banking on getting an old fighter that’s there to hit in front of him. He is planning to unleash his power as he did with Garcia early on with the idea that Manny, at this stage of his career, will not be able to handle it.
Manny is planning to outwork Thurman and to get to his body. Thurman has been hurt downstairs and if the Pacman can land to the midsection, he could put Thurman on the defense and start piling up points. That is the plan after all. Manny will not knock Thurman out. He has only knocked out one fighter (Mathysse) in the past 10 years. The Broner fight was impressive and if he can maintain the work rate and avoid the incoming, a new chapter will begin.
For Thurman to make sure that this is Manny’s final chapter, he must get control early and land the right hand as he comes in. Timing beats speed and if he can time Manny as he rushes in with the storm of punches, he may get some things done. Thurman cannot wait. He has to open up early and often.
On Saturday, the smart money at this time, remarkably, is on the older Pacquiao. Thurman will have to knock him out or dominate him to get the decision. Pacman will be in there as business as usual, throwing endless combinations and shutting down his opponent. It asks the question: can Thurman knock out Pacquiao? If he can’t, he loses a decision. So, even though the younger and stronger fighter should win, Pacquiao will probably walk away with a decision win in the 115-113 range.
