By Geno McGahee
It’s been quite a while since I wrote an article about boxing, but since we are preparing ourselves for the biggest, arguably, in the last ten years, I thought it was time to dust off the laptop and cover the Floyd Mayweather JR, 47-0, 26 KO’s vs. Manny Pacquiao, 57-5-2, 38 KO’s, fight on Saturday night. HBO and Showtime are rivals in every sense of the word, but when the money is right, they will come together as they did when they co-produced the Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson super fight. This is bigger than that. This is a fight that many thought would never happen. Some now are saying that it’s too little, too late. Others say it’s just the right time. There is so much hype surrounding this event that whether you think it’s taken too long to make, you can’t help but to get swept into the frenzy. If nothing else, this fight has captured the imagination of boxing fans and non-boxing fans. The casual boxing fans are returning for this one. Floyd’s nickname is “Money” and with a reported 180 million dollar paycheck, he’s living up to it on this one night.
Floyd considers himself the best of all time or TBE (the best ever). That point can be debated, but what can’t be questioned is his list of accomplishments. He has beaten a lot of notable opponents including Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Oscar De La Hoya, Juan Manuel Marquez, Canelo Alvarez, Marcos Maidana, Ricky Hatton, Diego Corrales and Zab Judah. The two biggest names on his record, Mosley and De La Hoya, were caught well past their primes and that is why this fight with Pacquiao is proving essential. It would have been interesting to see how Floyd would have handled a Felix Trinidad or prime De La Hoya or Mosley. Considering that De La Hoya nearly beat him, it’s fair to say that the Golden Boy would have been too much if they were matched when both were in their primes. So, Floyd probably isn’t the best ever, but he’s the best the sport has to offer now.
Pacquiao forced his way onto the scene when demolished top pound for pound fighter, Marco Antonio Barrera in 2003. He would better Erik Morales, another P4P champ, in 2 out of 3 outings, both of his revenge wins were by knockout. He would beat some of the same opposition that Floyd had, knocking out Miguel Cotto (TKO-12), Oscar De La Hoya (TKO-8) and Ricky Hatton (KO-2). He would outpoint Shane Mosley, Antonio Margarito and split a four fight series with Juan Manuel Marquez 2-1-1. His last five fights are a question that must be answered going into this fight. He has gone 3-2, losing to Timothy Bradley and more importantly, to Juan Manuel Marquez by vicious knockout. To his credit, Pacquiao has won three straight, but the opposition was questionable with the exception of his revenge win over Bradley. The victories over human punching bag, Brandon Rios and feather-fisted Chris Algieri were mismatches. He is jumping from C+ quality opposition to the best in the game, but there is hope.
BLUEPRINT TO BEAT MAYWEATHER JR
Mayweather has this aura of invincibility and despite the claim that no fight has ever been close, he has had a few close shaves and the blueprint to beat him is there. Going back to 2002, the aggressive Jose Luis Castillo was able to fight evenly with Floyd and some contend should have won the fight. He pressed him, outworked him, and just kept pushing forward. It was effective and when the final bell rang, the decision was in doubt. Floyd was victorious but he wasn’t untouchable on that night. Oscar De La Hoya and Miguel Cotto proved that the jab is the key to shut down Money Mayweather. De La Hoya won many of the early rounds by out-jabbing PBF and Cotto busted him up with the same punch. Neither could maintain, but it sets the game plan for any fighter that hopes to defeat him. The jab and activity.
Those betting on Pacquiao may not be as foolish as some think. There is another factor that many are not focusing on. Floyd has had issues with southpaws. Fast lefty, Zab Judah, knocked him down with a straight left and had him in some serious trouble. DeMarcus Corley hurt Floyd, another southpaw. Manny is a stronger puncher than Corley and just as quick as Judah. This combination may surprise the betting favorite here, but it should be noted that no lefty has got it done in the ring with him. Judah was battered badly and dominated late and Corley was also beaten decisively.
The blueprint to beat Floyd is diversity. If Manny’s plan is pressure, pressure, pressure, it won’t work in the long term. Pacquiao needs to be active, throw even if he can’t see the openings, and use his foot movement and hand speed to outpoint Floyd. George Foreman stated that Pacquiao has to take the fight round by round, win round by round, and that is true. Floyd usually gives away the early rounds. Manny should focus on winning those and maintaining his spirit and intelligent aggression. If Pacquiao is going to win, a decision is most likely and should be the goal.
BLUEPRINT TO BEAT PACQUIAO
Pacquiao has been beaten by active fighters that don’t take a step back. Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales remained in the eye of the storm and held their ground. Marquez is the best example of a fighter holding the keys to defeat Pacquiao and arguably beat him every time despite the decisions against him. Floyd can take some pointers from the way that Marquez showed success. The right hand and left hook are two punches that work against the PacMan. Marquez, although he won by KO in his last fight with Manny on a right hand, showed that his left hook was a great tool in the ring. Floyd is known for a great left hook and it is quick and powerful. The lead right of Floyd’s is another that will work.
For Floyd to beat Manny, he must shut him down. Even though Floyd is an underrated puncher, he has not had a knockout in a long time. His last KO was in 2011 with a cheap shot against mediocrity, Victor Ortiz. Before that, it was 2007 against Ricky Hatton. Although there is the good chance that he can hurt the smaller Pacquiao and knock him out, it’s that same way of thinking that left De La Hoya with a knockout loss. Floyd must focus on catching Manny on the way in and on the way out. The minute PacMan gets close and opens up will be defense time for Floyd.
In this fight, Floyd must start sooner. He must not allow Manny to get an early lead because it may make the difference in the end. What Floyd does in the ring doesn’t always click with the judges and with so many people wanting him to lose, it may be subconsciously weighing on the minds of the judges. Remember, Floyd decisively beat Canelo Alvarez but settled for a majority decision. Like Manny, Floyd should focus on winning the decision and if the KO comes, so be it.
THE FIGHT & PREDICTION
Look for Pacquiao to start quickly and put pressure on Floyd. Even though Floyd is known for timing, this is an area that PacMan excels in as well. If Pacquiao finds Floyd early with punches, we are going to be in for an interesting night. Most likely, we will see a lot of punches but a lot of misses early from Manny, but he will do enough to take the early rounds. Probably leading 4-2 after six rounds.
After round six, Floyd will begin to find the mark. The straight right hand to the head and the right hook to the body will begin to get to Pacquiao and the effectiveness that Manny had early will deteriorate. Although the easy pick is PBF by decision…perhaps close decision, but I think we’re going to see Pacquiao knocked out before the 10th round. Floyd will weather the storm and then forge on late to batter Pacquiao into submission. Floyd by TKO with Manny possibly quitting on the stool.
This Saturday, we will see the super fight happen and regardless of what happens, expect an exciting time. The fact that we are here and that the fight has held together, finally, is outstanding for boxing. This fight, along with the Premiere Boxing Series, and the addition of an undefeated American heavyweight champion in Deontay Wilder, proves that the sport is making a comeback. We may be entering another golden era in the game.
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Good call Geno!!
Thanks man!