By Geno McGahee
Jake Paul, 11-1, 7 KO’s, is ready to return to the ring this Saturday night against former WBC middleweight champion, Julio Cesar Chavez, JR., 54-6-1, 34 KO’s, in a ten round cruiserweight bout. This is a step up for Paul even when factoring in the age and lackluster performances above the 160 pound division for Chavez, JR. Paul has only fought one former boxing champion and that was Mike Tyson in his last fight who was nearly 60. Chavez, JR., is 39 and that is an age where potential can still be realized.
Paul is coming off of five straight wins since his loss to Tommy Fury and there are some things to take from these fights that might give us a window into what we will see this Saturday night. He dominated former UFC star, Nate Diaz, in a ten round decision, knocked out two heavyweight fighters in the first round in Andre August and Ryan Bourland, and beat down bareknuckle champion, Mike Perry, into a TKO win, leading to the Mike Tyson fight that he easily won.
The August and Bourland fights showed what Paul could do against “real boxers,” knocking them both out in the first round. Both boxers were not great fighters, but they had winning records and both were quickly taken out and, most importantly, going into this fight, the right uppercut was the punch for Paul that led to the stoppages. That could be the early downfall for Chavez, JR., if he charges and goes for the body as most expect him to.
The struggles that Paul had with Diaz and Perry had a lot to do with their awkwardness. A lot of focus has been put on Paul taking on former MMA fighters, but they make for ugly fights most of the time. Paul is better off fighting training boxers and he is facing a moment of truth with Chavez, JR., even at this stage of his career.
Chavez, JR., built up a record of 46-0-1, before he faced off against Sergio Martinez in a middleweight title fight. He would lose a spirited decision and move up to light heavyweight and got a reality check when a left cross by Andrzej Fonfara would drop him. He would not come out to fight the next round. He would drop down to super middleweight to take on Canelo Alvarez in another one-sided loss and quit in his corner after taking some punches from Daniel Jacobs.
In 2021, the most embarrassing loss in the career of Chavez, JR., would occur. Anderson Silva, former UFC champion, would cruise to a decision with a record of 1-1 going in. Things haven’t looked much better for him as he struggled to get a win over Uriah Hall, a fighter with a 1-0 record, in his last fight. He is 3-3 in his last 6 fights and he has not been a real player in boxing in 13 years. He’s been an ineffective light heavyweight and now he’s taking on a big Jake Paul at cruiserweight, but not all is bad for Chavez, JR.
It is safe to say that Chavez, JR., is the toughest opponent that Paul has faced so far and he has a definite chance to end the career of the Problem Child. If Chavez, JR., can press Paul and work the body, he might wear him down enough to get the stoppage or win on the cards. It’s a big if though because Chavez, JR., has been criticized for his heart and he might not be capable of getting up for a fight anymore.
PREDICTION
It’s been said that Jake Paul chooses his fights wisely and this is accurate. Despite Chavez, JR., having the track record and name, he will probably be easy work for Paul. Going by his last fight with Hall, Chavez, JR., looked terrible and easy to hit. He also elected to move mostly rather than pressing. He looked open for the right cross and not overly willing to trade. This Chavez, JR., will be an early knockout victim to Paul, but let’s hope we don’t see this one.
If Chavez, JR., comes in fully motivated with a battle plan, we will get some rounds out of it, but the power that he had at middleweight never translated to the higher weight classes. If he gets close and works the body, he might not be able to hurt Paul and get the stoppage win, even if everything goes right.
When the bell rings on Saturday night, I suspect that Chavez, JR., will be motivated and will focus on the body, but he’s going to be walking through a minefield. That right uppercut and overhand right will be waiting and will be landing. I see Paul landing that right uppercut early and often and if he can’t knock Chavez, JR., out, we could see what we’ve seen before, Julio quitting in his corner.
Despite my high hopes for a competitive showdown with Paul really being tested, I suspect we will see a first round beatdown where Chavez, JR., is shown to be very ineffective and is struggling to survive. I would not be shocked if it ends on the stool after round one. I hope not. If he comes out, I think we will see a stoppage from a barrage of punches that convinces the referee to end it.
JAKE PAUL KO-2 JULIO CESAR CHAVEZ JR
