By Geno McGahee
On Saturday, Canelo Alvarez, 51-1-2, 35 KO’s, moves up to the light heavyweight division to take on defending WBO champion, Sergey Kovalev, 34-3-1, 29 KO’s, on DAZN. There was a time when this match would never be made, but with Kovalev looking so mediocre lately, this is a calculated risk that should pay off for the Mexican superstar.
Even though we will see a 175 pound Canelo for the first time, we may see the best version that we’ve seen. As he has moved up divisions and put on weight, he has looked incredibly strong and he not only avoids a lot of the incoming but he takes a good shot. He was able to stand in front of the power-punching beast, Gennadiy Golovkin in their second fight and showed his strength by dictating the pace and pushing the bigger man back.
There was a time where Kovalev was the most feared man in boxing. He was knocking everyone out and even dominated Bernard Hopkins. There was no question that he was the man at 175, but then he met Andre Ward and that has dictated the rest of his career. After losing a questionable decision, Kovalev went for the rematch and it was not pretty. Ward used the tactics that work against a bully. Kovalev can dish it out but he can’t take it, especially to the body. He quit after being beaten to the body by Ward, who isn’t the biggest puncher in the world.
Kovalev would return to the ring and get two knockout wins before getting knocked out himself by another fighter that stood up to him and returned fire in Eleider Alvarez. To his credit, Kovalev would come back and fight a better fight and take a decision over Alvarez, but he’s not the same fighter he once was. In his last fight with Anthony Yarde, he was ready to quit from the onslaught of body shots, but came back and won the fight by an 11th round knockout. It was the fight that secured this match with the biggest star in boxing, Canelo.
The only shot that Kovalev has in this fight is to land that right hand and land it early. Canelo will be attacking and looking for the body of Kovalev. The word is out. The way to beat him is with a sustained body attack, which is what Canelo does anyway. Kovalev will have to use his jab and keep the distance and drop in the right hand and hope for the best. Canelo just has to be Canelo and go for the body at every opportunity.
Look for a very frustrated Kovalev to try to get the job done but after three or four rounds of a body attack with some brutal head shots along the way, look for the referee to rescue him or Buddy McGirt to tell his fighter that he’s had enough. It’s very hard to see Kovalev getting much done in this one despite the size difference. Kovalev just doesn’t appear to have much left and loses confidence when the waters get rough.
